The legacy media has been freaking out for weeks over rising oil and gas prices amidst the conflict in Iran. But now they are going a step further, breaking out the "R" word. A recent headline reads, Global Recession Nears as Countries Hoard Oil Reserves. A closer look at the article reveals it is based on one comment from the Transport Commissioner for the European Union, who said, "If the Iran war does not end in the coming weeks and we don't have the reopening of the Hormuz strait, I'm afraid a world recession could be on the table."
That's all it took. The opinion of one EU official was enough to fire up breathless reporting that "the global economy could slide into recession within weeks...according to economic experts."
But other, more reputable economic experts beg to disagree with that negative assessment. Like Larry Kudlow, FOX Business host and former White House economic advisor. "Yes, there is a war going on, and yes, gasoline and other energy prices have jumped up because of the war," says Kudlow on his show. "Of course that's all the lefty media ever writes about...but the lefties are gonna be very disappointed, because there is no recession in sight."
Kudlow points out that the Atlanta Fed is actually projecting larger U.S. economic growth in the current quarter, despite the war. Contrast that to the Biden administration, when the U.S. economy shrank for two consecutive quarters---the actual definition of a recession---and yet many of the same media outlets now criticizing Trump gave Biden a pass.
Other underlying economic metrics like the unemployment rate and wage growth remain strong, signaling the current situation is more a short-term setback than the start of a long-term trend. "Look, nobody's thrilled about the energy shock, including me," says Kudlow. "But I still believe it will be temporary, and I still believe it's a very small price to pay to get rid of the gruesome and barbaric Iranian regime."
The bottom line is Kudlow doesn't believe the "R" word is applicable at all in the current situation. "For all the left-wing media rabble-babble about the Trump economy, nearly all the numbers coming in this spring are showing strength and resilience," he says.
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