More than six months ahead of the midterm elections, it remains difficult to make any bold predictions. Early signs of a Democrat "blue wave" faded in recent months, with a new wild card now being thrown into the equation--the Iran war. Depending on how long the war lasts and how it ultimately ends up, it could end up having a large or small impact on the election this fall. But the state of the economy is still likely to be the biggest factor, with other "wild card" factors likely to crop up between now and November.
What this all means is we don't know what we don't know. But what is increasingly clear is that neither Republicans or Democrats appear to be in line for any kind of massive "wave" election. While midterm elections historically trend strongly toward the party that is out of power, the strongest waves tend to happen after one party gets overexposed in Congress...which isn't happening now. As Red State's Adam Turner writes, "The GOP is NOT overexposed. During the “blue wave” of 2018, the GOP lost 41 seats and won only half of those seats back in 2020 and 2022. In 2024, thanks to some shenanigans in California, the Republicans lost 2 seats...there is still no sign of another 'blue wave.'”
Dr. Bo Kabala, political science professor at Tarleton State University, agrees with that assessment, adding that even the Iran war is not a political disaster for President Trump and Republicans. "A recent Rasmussen poll showed more than 70 percent of Americans are still optimistic that the U.S. has more economic and military pressure points to apply," he tells KTRH. "So I think this election is much closer than anybody wants to allow, and it's not necessarily a wave election by any means."
Of course, neither party needs a "wave" to take control of the House or Senate. With a razor-thin majority in the House, Republicans just need to hold serve or pick up a few seats to bolster their majority, while Democrats only need to flip three net seats to take their own narrow majority. In the Senate, Democrats need to flip a net of four seats in order to gain control.
But with so many factors still at play, anyone measuring the drapes at this point is making a big mistake. "People are getting tax refunds here at home, we've got the situation in the Middle East, and the situation in Europe shifting," says Kabala. "Months in politics is an eternity, and you just cannot predict that far out."
"So I think some modesty here would be very much in order."
Photo: Moment RF