Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is officially running against longtime Texas Senator John Cornyn. Both are political powerhouses in the state of Texas, so what can we expect to see from this heated upcoming 2026 primary?
For starters, you can plan on seeing both the Paxton and Cornyn campaigns shell out tens of millions of dollars. Political consultant Luke Macias says, "I don’t think money is going to be a problem for either of these people, and they’re also people that start being very well known and defined by Republican voters."
The fact that both candidates are well-defined within the Texas GOP base could wind up being a major problem for John Cornyn, whose support within the Republican Party has dwindled over the last several years. Cornyn has faced censures from both the Tarrant and Dallas County GOP leadership and was even booed by Republicans at the state convention last year.
Macias says this is going to be a difficult obstacle for Cornyn to overcome. He said, "When you’re a known quantity, and people have a strong opinion of you, and now you’re wanting to change it, it’s much more expensive and difficult."
That doesn’t mean it’s going to be completely smooth sailing for Attorney General Paxton, though. He’s expected to face a barrage of attacks on the basis of his past legal troubles, including a federal investigation, as well as an impeachment in the Texas House of Representatives.
Both the federal investigation into Paxton and his impeachment were widely seen as political lawfare, and neither yielded any results. They have been used as political weapons against Paxton in the past, but that never really caught on. Macias doesn’t think this time will be any different.
This once again leaves Cornyn in the difficult position of having to convince the GOP base to turn against him. Macias says, "I don’t know exactly what Senator Cornyn’s strategy is going to be here, but I do know his team is going to be working every angle they can to try to move Texas Republicans’ opinions of them."
Macias also pointed out that we could still see other Republicans, like Houston-area Congressman Wesley Hunt, enter the race later down the road, and that could have significant effects on the dynamics of the race.