The new Congress has yet to even take office after the 2024 election, which saw Republicans win control of the House and Senate, along with the White House. But it's never too early to look ahead in politics, which is why observers are already peering to the 2026 midterms. The early conclusion is the '26 Senate map looks favorable to Republicans staying in control, and perhaps expanding their advantage. "Republicans have to feel pretty confident in the Senate, at least initially," says Mark Jones, Rice University political science professor. "Since there only is one really vulnerable (GOP) seat in Maine, and that's offset by two vulnerable Democratic seats in Michigan and Georgia."
Indeed, although Republicans will be defending 22 of the 35 seats on the 2026 ballot, only Susan Collins in Maine is in a state won by Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, Democrats will be defending incumbents Gary Peters in Michigan and Jon Ossoff in Georgia, both states won by Donald Trump. That severely limits the Dems' chances of flipping the four seats necessary to take back the majority without pulling multiple upsets. "Things look pretty good for Republicans to retain the Senate," says Jones. "They may lose one or two seats, but since they have a 53-47 advantage, they would still be in the majority...even if it got down to 50-50 because (Vice President) JD Vance would break the tie."
While it's likely Donald Trump can count on a Republican-controlled Senate for the full four years of his second term, the House is another story. There, the math and history are not on the side of the GOP, which holds a slim 220-215 advantage. Historically, the party that controls the White House usually loses House seats in the midterms. "The most likely scenario is that in 2026, Republicans see their seats decrease in the U.S. House, which given the narrow advantage they hold, would mean Democrats take control for the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency," says Jones.
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