FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
- Tropical Cyclone formation is likely across the northern Gulf of Mexico in the next 24-48 hours.
- With the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center, there will be minimal effects on South Central Texas over the upcoming weekend and early next week.
- Keep a high weather awareness over the next few days as track forecasts can change quickly
- Rain chances are increasing Thursday July 11, but this is not associated with the potential tropical system
Threats & Impacts:
Note: Changes in potential track and intensity may dramatically change the impacts and locations of these threats/impacts.
Rainfall: Low Confidence
- Rain chances will increase over the next couple of days (not associated with this potential tropical system). Isolated 1-2 inch totals possible.
- No rain is expected from the tropical system this weekend as most if not all of the associated rain remains well east of South Central Texas.
Winds: No significant winds are expected across our region of Texas at this time associated with this potential tropical system.
Tornadoes: No tornadoes are expected at this time.
Overview:
An area of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico continues to get better organized and the National Hurricane Center now forecasts this area to become Tropical Cyclone Barry within the next 24-48 hours. The current forecast track is well east of South Central Texas and this possible cyclone will likely have impacts across Louisiana and maybe even portions of East Texas. Our South Central Texas region is well west of these expected cyclone impacts as of right now. Forecast track and intensity forecasts have very low confidence right now. What this means is that we all have to be very vigilant and keep updated over the next several days in case models change and bring this system closer to our region.
An increase in moisture over Texas will lead to mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms tonight and Thursday. Some brief strong storms are possible during this time along with some brief heavy rains. Isolated rain totals the next few days should remain below 2 inches.