THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISORY FROM THIS MORNING:
There have been very little changes to the forecast for the mid-week period and a slight risk for severe thunderstorms still exists Wednesday afternoon and evening across South Central Texas. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.
Area of Concern:
All of South Central Texas, with the greatest risk for severe thunderstorms along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor
Threats & Impacts:Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes possible
Winds: 60 MPH gusts possible
Hail: Quarter size hail
Rainfall: Up to 2 inches. Minor flooding is possible. Some low water crossings could become flooded, some creeks and rivers may see increased flow.
Timing and Overview:An upper level storm system and associated cold front moving across the Southern Plains will result in increasing thunderstorm chances across South Central Texas on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase during the day on Wednesday ahead of the upper level storm system and a few of these thunderstorms may become strong to severe. Confidence is lower on severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon as cloud cover may limit thunderstorm development. The main hazard from any thunderstorm that develops during the afternoon hours (roughly 12 PM - 5 PM) appears to be large hail.
As the upper level storm system and cold front moves across Texas during the evening and overnight hours, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the cold front and move west to east across the region (roughly 5 PM - 4 AM). Current expectations are for this thunderstorm line to reach the I-35 corridor around midnight Thursday. Confidence is higher on severe thunderstorm development during the evening and overnight hours. Any storms that develop ahead of this thunderstorm line during the evening and overnight hours will need to be monitored for at least a brief tornado threat, with damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado possible within the thunderstorm line. Dry conditions are expected Thursday behind the cold front.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any activity on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with up to 2 inches forecast. The overall speed of these thunderstorms is expected to limit any kind of widespread flooding threat, but minor or street flooding will be possible as well as increased flows on creeks and rivers.
Severe potential: Low-Moderate