Here Comes the Rain!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISORY FROM THIS MORNING:


There  have been very little changes to the forecast for the mid-week period  and a slight risk for severe thunderstorms still exists Wednesday  afternoon and evening across South Central Texas. Locally heavy rainfall  will also be possible.

Area of Concern:

All of South Central Texas, with the greatest risk for severe thunderstorms along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor

Threats & Impacts:Tornadoes:  Isolated tornadoes possible

 Winds:  60 MPH gusts possible

Hail:  Quarter size hail

Rainfall:  Up to 2  inches.  Minor flooding is possible.  Some low water crossings could  become flooded, some creeks and rivers may see increased flow.

  

Timing and Overview:An upper level storm system and  associated cold front moving across the Southern Plains will result in  increasing thunderstorm chances across South Central Texas on  Wednesday and Wednesday  night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase during the  day on Wednesday ahead of the upper level storm system and a few of  these thunderstorms may become strong to severe. Confidence is lower on  severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon  as cloud cover may limit thunderstorm development. The main hazard from  any thunderstorm that develops during the afternoon hours (roughly 12  PM - 5 PM) appears to be large hail.


 As the upper level storm system and cold front moves across Texas during  the evening and overnight hours, a line of thunderstorms is expected to  develop along the cold front and move west to east across the region (roughly  5 PM - 4 AM). Current expectations  are for this thunderstorm line to reach the I-35 corridor around  midnight Thursday. Confidence is higher on severe thunderstorm  development during the evening and overnight hours. Any storms  that develop ahead of this thunderstorm line during the evening and  overnight hours will need to be monitored for at least a brief tornado  threat, with damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado  possible within the thunderstorm line. Dry conditions  are expected Thursday behind the cold front.


Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any activity on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with up to 2 inches forecast.  The overall speed of these thunderstorms is expected to limit any kind  of widespread flooding threat, but minor or street flooding will be  possible  as well as increased flows on creeks and rivers. 


Confidence:

Severe potential:  Low-Moderate

Rainfall:  Moderate


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