Area of Concern:
Heavy rainfall potential across central and eastern Hill Country as well as along and east of the I-35 and I-37 corridors.
Threats & Impacts:
Rainfall: (see attached graphic)Widespread 3-5 inches of rainfall possible across central and eastern Hill Country as well as along and east of the I-35 and I-37 corridors (including Austin and San Antonio metros).1-3 inches across western Hill Country and Rio Grande. Locally higher pockets are possible across South Central Texas.Flooding:Pockets of heavier rainfall could produce flooding of some creeks, smaller tributaries, and low water crossings. Mainstem of the Colorado River could be at play for minor flooding.Severe: (see attached graphic)Marginal risk for severe storms across southeastern areas.IF any severe storms formed damaging straight-line winds and a small tornado threat would be impacts.
Timing and Overview:
A cold front and upper level disturbance will produce widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms late Thursday night through early Saturday morning. Models are trending slightly higher on rainfall amounts. Heavy rainfall will be possible during the day on Friday and into Friday evening. While we have been relatively dry over the past few weeks, pockets of heavier rainfall Friday afternoon through Friday night could produce flooding of some creeks, smaller tributaries, and low water crossings. In addition, the West Gulf River Forecast Center also indicates the mainstem of the Colorado River could be at play for minor flooding.
Of lower confidence is the potential for severe weather. IF any severe storms develop damaging straight-line winds and a small tornado threat would be impacts across southeastern counties Friday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area in a Marginal risk for severe storms.
We will continue to refine the forecast over the coming days with an additional update by Thursday morning at the latest.
Rain Chances: Very HighRainfall Amounts: HighArea of Heaviest Rainfall: Moderate Severe Storms: Low