Tropical System in Gulf Getting Better Defined


An area of  showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are  becoming better organized. Confidence for potential tropical development  with this system during the next 5 days has increased as a result. As  this system moves slowly northwestward towards the Texas coast mid to  late this week, conditions will become even more favorable for  development and a tropical depression is expected to develop by Thursday  night. Exact track details of this system are still being refined, but  steering flow during the late week period would support the system  moving towards the middle or lower Texas coasts and towards South  Central Texas. Regardless of  development, periods of heavy rain will be possible as this system  reaches the Texas coast and moves inland. South Central Texas  (especially areas west of the I-35/I-37 corridor) are very sensitive to  additional rainfall given this past weekend's rainfall and we are  monitoring for the potential for flooding issues. As of now, model  guidance is in good agreement that the system will move fairly quickly  across the region and limit most flooding concerns to the Friday and  Saturday time frame. Please keep in mind that this window may be  adjusted as more data becomes available.


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