What We Know:
Environmental conditions are looking less conducive for tropical cyclone development in the southwest Gulf of Mexico as an area of disturbed weather moves west-northwest through the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center has reduced the chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days to 0%.
We do expect an increase in moisture, tied to the tropical wave, to move into the region Sunday and persist through Wednesday, providing periods of good rain chances.
Generally a widespread 2-3 inches of rain is expected Sunday through Wednesday, however isolated pockets of 5-7 inches are possible.
It is currently difficult to pinpoint locations where these pockets could occur. As of today's forecast, the highest totals should fall in the southeastern areas. It should be stressed this is a rainfall forecast over a 4 day period and generally speaking significant, widespread flooding concerns are currently not anticipated given the ongoing drought conditions.
However, given the tropical nature of the air mass there could be some pockets where higher rainfall rates produce minor flooding issues.
What We Don't Know:
It is too soon to have high confidence on locations where the isolated heavier pockets of rainfall will occur across South Central Texas. The expected axis of heavier rainfall could shift if the best moisture shifts west or east.
When We Will Know More:
Confidence in rainfall amounts and locations should continue to increase through the weekend.Another update will be provided by Saturday morning.