The Very Latest on Our Chances of Rain

posted by 1200 WOAI -

What We Know:

Environmental conditions are looking less  conducive for tropical cyclone development in the southwest Gulf of  Mexico as an area of disturbed weather moves west-northwest  through the  weekend. 

The National Hurricane Center has reduced the chance of  tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days to 0%.

We do expect an increase in moisture,  tied to the tropical wave, to move into the region Sunday and persist  through Wednesday, providing periods of good rain chances.

Generally  a widespread 2-3 inches of rain is expected Sunday through Wednesday,  however isolated pockets of 5-7 inches are possible. 

It is currently  difficult to pinpoint locations where these pockets could occur. As of  today's forecast, the highest totals should fall in the southeastern  areas. It should be stressed this is a  rainfall forecast over a 4 day period and generally speaking  significant, widespread flooding concerns are currently not anticipated  given the ongoing drought conditions. 

However, given the tropical nature  of the air mass there could be some pockets where higher rainfall rates  produce minor flooding issues.

What We Don't Know:

It is too soon to have high confidence on  locations where the isolated heavier pockets of rainfall will occur  across South Central Texas. The expected axis of heavier rainfall could shift if the best moisture shifts west or east. 

When We Will Know More:

Confidence in rainfall amounts and locations should continue to increase through the weekend.Another update will be provided by Saturday morning. 

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