So what is next for the long time Republican stronghold of San Antonio's 21st Congressional district after Thursday's surprise retirement announcement from U.S. Rep Lamar Smith, who has held the seat since he was first elected in 1986?
What is clear that the district will be very much in play in the 2018 elections, and its future representation is unclear.
1) THE DISTRICT. Smith, with his earnest, honest brand of street level conservatism, was able to rack up big electoral numbers through several vastly different versions of the 21st District.
In the nineties, Smith represented, in addition to the heart of the district in northeast San Antonio, represented territory that stretched through west Texas all the way to Midland. Later, he represented a huge swath of the Texas Hill Country.
But Cal Jillson, a political observer at SMU, says the Republicans may have been too clever by half when they redraw Smith's district following the 2010 Census, giving him a huge swath of Democrat leaning Travis County, including the campus of the University of Texas, while he still represents much of the solidly GOP leaning Hill Country.
"His district is changing demographically, and he has said a lot of things about climate change and science topics that have raised a lot of eyebrows," Jillson said.
As the Republican majority in the Texas Legislature tried to protect as many Republicans as possible in the 2011 redistricting, they clearly relied on Smith's ability to win re-election in a wide variety of districts. They stripped Smith of much of his natural Republican precincts to support rising Republican star Michael McCaul and whichever Republican happens to be running in the contentious 23rd District, assuming he could continue to win with a more Democrat leaning district. And while that has been true with Smith in that seat, he received 64% of the vote in 2016, one of his lowest totals ever but still an impressive turnout, it is completely uncertain whether a Republican newcomer can come nearly as close to duplicating that margin of victory.
The 21st does include much of reliably Republican Comal County, although San Marcos and Hays County are turning into 'Austin Lite'.
Indeed, the retirement of Smith may even encourage Austin Democrats (State Senator Kirk Watson? Austin Mayor Steve Adler?) to enter the race and perhaps even wrest control of the 21st district away from San Antonio.
In fact, before Smith won the seat in 1986, previous occupants like Tom Loeffler only had weak ties to San Antonio.
2) POSSIBLE CONTENDERS. Several Democrats have already filed in the seat, hoping to take advantage of the leftward tilt of the district. But no Republican has surfaced to challenge Smith. Here are some who are being discussed as possible candidates now that Smith is stepping aside:
JOE STRAUS. It is almost too coincidental that the respected Texas House Speaker announced his plans not to seek re-election to the Texas House just two weeks before Smith's announcement.
Smith and Straus are long time political allies, in fact, Straus' first foray into politics, at the urging of his Republican stalwart mother Joci, was as manager of Smith's Congressional campaigns.
Straus remains a towering and respected figure in Texas politics, and he already has a significant campaign warchest at his disposal.
Straus' 'third way' approach to politics could gain him support among the upscale Democrats who live in the Travis County part of the district. Straus would be a superstar in the Congresional Republican caucus from day one.
But he would also undoubtedly attract a strong and well funded Republican primary challenger and would have to deal with the familiar charges from the right that he is insufficiently conservative, which could turn off the Republican base, magnifying the district's growing Democratic strength.
LYLE LARSON. Charismatic, photogenic and solidly conservative, Larson would bring a wealth of experience as a San Antonio City Councilman, Bexar County Commissioner, and State Representative to the campaign. Larson would probably discourage other conservatives from challenging him in the primary, and has shown a solid aptitude to raise money.
Larson has also been soundly marginalized in the Legislature. Gov. Abbott vetoed two Larson bills at the end of the 2017 session after Larson challenged the governor by introducing an ethics bill which would have cut deeply into Abbott's ability to use his office for partisan gain. Not only is Larson on Abbott's hit list, but Larson was one of Straus' biggest Statehouse supporters (their families go back a long ways, Larson's father, a large animal vet, took care of the Straus family's legendary race horses).
Larson would bring a bit of 'Mister Smith goes to Washington' with him, with his down to earth, outdoorsman style and commitment to political ethics.
Residency issues may be a problem but they could be easily overcome. Larson ran for Congress once before, losing badly to Ciro Rodriguez in the 23rd District after running a lackluster campaign. His heart would have to be truly in it to attempt this race.
Stay tuned!