In about one month, the United States will start negotiations with Mexico and Canada over the North American Free Trade Agreement, and if President Trump thinks ending the trade deal will bring manufacturing jobs back across the border, one expert tells Newsradio 1200 WOAI, he's sadly mistaken.
Texas A&M economist Raymond Robertson says the data shows that when employment expands in the United States, it also expands in Mexico, and when it contracts in the United States, it also contracts in Mexico. In other words, they complement each other instead of being substitutes
."In particular jobs in Texas that rely on input coming from Mexico in order to manufacture or produce their output," he says.
His research shows that, in 2015, 11.5 million U.S. Jobs were dependent on export trade. Of those jobs, Texas, California, Washington, Illinois, and New York benefitted the most with 2.8 million jobs, or 41% of jobs related to goods exports.
On the campaign trail, President Trump called NAFTA, which was signed in San Antonio, the worst trade deal in history. It's a claim he's since backed off of, and Prof. Robertson says it's likely because he's now hearing from a wide array of stakeholders since telling Congress earlier this month that he planned to renegotiate the trade deal.
Mexico is the United States’ most important trading partner. In 2015, total exports to Mexico accounted for 11.8% of overall US exports and total imports from Mexico accounted for 11.5% of overall US imports. He writes that the total value of trade between Mexico and the United States exceeded half a trillion dollars.
"San Antonio relies a lot on Mexican produce, and those prices are low as a result of the agreement, which raises the living standards of those buying the food," Robertson says.