A Quinnipiac Poll shows Ted Cruz holding onto a nine point lead over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke, leading one pollster to remark that Beto 'has hit a wall,' News Radio 1200 WOAI reports
"O'Rourke may be attracting massive crowds, but Cruz has a better favorability rating," said Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director of the poll.
One significant part of the poll--Hispanic voters pull 37% for Ted Cruz. A Democrat truism in Texas for years has been that 'demographics is destiny' and the more Hispanic voters participate, the stronger the 'blue wave' will be that will overwhelm the state. But this poll shows the maturing Hispanic population in Texas, as many first generation Hispanics are at voting age, that may not be becoming true.
The poll shows 94% of Democrats supporting O'Rourke, and 94% of Republicans backing Cruz, bursting another Democrat hope that 'Never Trumper' Republicans and Trump supporters who are still angry over Cruz' luke-warm embrace of Trump at the 2016 convention, might defect.
While there are far more Republicans than Democrats in Texas, and Republicans have a tendency to be more likely to vote in mid term elections, that also shows bad news for O'Rourke.
"The election is far from over, but Sen. Cruz would have to suffer a major collapse for him to lose. That is even more unlikely since 97 percent of Cruz voters say they are sure they won't change their minds," Brown said.
Cruz and O'Rourke are set to meet for their final debate tomorrow night in San Antonio.
As expected, the same poll shows Gov. Abbott cruising to victory over Democrat Lupe Valdez. Abbott's lead is twenty points, about the same as his margin of victory over Wendy Davis in 2014, and, like in the Cruz-O'Rourke race, nearly all of Abbott's support is locked in, meaning it will be almost impossible for Valdez to chip away at Abbott's strong support.
The Quinnipiac Poll surveys 'likely voters' which is seen as a more reliable type of polling than polls that survey 'registered voters.