FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
An area of showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are becoming better organized. Confidence for potential tropical development with this system during the next 5 days has increased as a result. As this system moves slowly northwestward towards the Texas coast mid to late this week, conditions will become even more favorable for development and a tropical depression is expected to develop by Thursday night. Exact track details of this system are still being refined, but steering flow during the late week period would support the system moving towards the middle or lower Texas coasts and towards South Central Texas. Regardless of development, periods of heavy rain will be possible as this system reaches the Texas coast and moves inland. South Central Texas (especially areas west of the I-35/I-37 corridor) are very sensitive to additional rainfall given this past weekend's rainfall and we are monitoring for the potential for flooding issues. As of now, model guidance is in good agreement that the system will move fairly quickly across the region and limit most flooding concerns to the Friday and Saturday time frame. Please keep in mind that this window may be adjusted as more data becomes available.