More polling continues to come out that shows not only is the Texas Senate race getting tighter, but Democrat candidate James Talarico might be taking the lead and could be getting closer to becoming the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas in 30 years.
The latest example of this is a poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research Center at Texas Southern University that showed 47 percent of respondents planned to vote for Talarico, while just 45 percent plan to support Paxton.
The only question remaining is, can we actually trust those polls? The first red flag with the Barbara Jordan poll is the fact that it showed every other statewide Republican candidate leading their Democrat opponent. Tony Ortiz, publisher of Current Revolt, called this out, saying: “Is it possible that somebody votes for James Talarico, and then turns around and votes for somebody like a Bo French or a Greg Abbott? It doesn’t really compute.”
He went on to say that as far back as 2016, political polls have been wildly unreliable, and as a result, they’ve lost public trust. “I specifically remember right up until election day, it showed Hillary Clinton winning by double digits. People remember that, and they react appropriately,” he said.
That’s why now, political polls are primarily used by candidates to fundraise, while betting markets have become the go-to for those seeking to actually predict the results of an election. Ortiz says in the case of the Texas Senate race, websites like Polymarket and Kalshi are once again painting a more realistic picture.
Ortiz said: “On Kalshi, it shows Paxton up at 53% and James Talarico at 47%. So, they are tightening, but it still shows Paxton leading.”