UPDATE: A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 9 PM for portions of south central Texas
Focus shifting to Minor Flooding Concerns Along and East of Highway 281 for Today
Still a chance of Light Freezing Rain across the Hill Country/Edwards Plateau this morning and again tonight into Thursday Morning.
Area of Concern:
Minor Flooding from Rainfall: Areas Along and East of Highway 281 (see attached graphics) Freezing Rain: Hill Country and the Edwards Plateau (see attached graphic)
Threats & Impacts:
Minor Flooding from Rainfall Expected Rain Totals: Between 2 and 3 inches possible along and east of Highway 281. Impacts: Impacts will be localized to areas that have seen heaviest rainfall over the past few weeks and would primarily result in elevated flows along creeks and streams, flooding of low water crossings is likely.
Freezing Rain Expected Ice Accumulations: Light glaze of 1/10 of an inch or less, mainly accumulating on elevated and exposed metal surfaces.Impacts: Some slick spots possible on elevated bridges and overpasses.
Timing and Overview:
The chances for moderate to heavy rainfall and some minor flooding continues to increase across South Central Texas today, Wednesday. Forecast rainfall amounts for the 36 hours from this morning through Thursday morning continue to increase with now 2-3 inches possible east of Highway 281. Moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms could produce heavier rainfall totals that could lead to localized minor flooding issues, especially for low water crossings. Due to moist soils from recent rains and dormant vegetation efficient runoff will cause drainage ditches, creeks, and streams to fill up leading to the closure of low water crossings. As the rainfall from Wednesday drains into local creeks and streams elevated water levels in these drainage areas could continue to be a hazard for the morning commute on Thursday.
Cold air will remain in place across South Central Texas today. With surface temperatures dropping to around the freezing mark across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country there is the possibility of light freezing rain through this morning and then again tonight into Thursday morning. The main concern for freezing rain potential appears to be mainly across western Llano and Gillespie and the northern portions of Kerr, Real, and Edwards counties. Surface temperatures should warmabove freezing by noon today resulting in a cold rain across all of South Central Texas for the afternoon hours. Temperatures across the Edwards Plateau will once again drop below freezing tonight with light precipitation still expected, meaning there is a chance of more light freezing rain tonight into Thursday morning. Ice accumulations are expected to be light and remain generally below one tenth of an inch, occurring mainly on elevated surfaces and objects. Based on the Texas Mesonet soil temperatures across much of South Central Texas are currently in the upper 40s and lower 50s which should preclude any ground accumulation of the freezing rain.
The moderate to heavy rainfall should come to an end late this evening, with additional light precipitation possible overnight into Thursday morning. Rain should end from west to east by noon on Thursday bringing and end to the threat of minor flooding and frozen precipitation.
Freezing Rain: Moderate.Minor Flooding from Rainfall: Moderate