Strong to Severe Storms Possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening northeast of San Antonio
Area of Concern:
Greatest risk near and east of an Austin to Bastrop to Halletsville line. (orange shaded area in the attached graphic)Lower risk in yellow shaded area on the attached graphic
Damaging straight-line winds and/or large hail with any severe storms
Dangerous cloud to ground lightning
Local pockets of heavy rainfall across Lee, Bastrop, and Fayette counties
Timing and Overview:
A cold front will interact with an upper level disturbance to produce scattered thunderstorms across portions of South Central Texas late Wednesday afternoon and evening, during Halloween activities for some. The greatest chances for storms will be near and east of an Austin to Bastrop to Halletsville line. The Storm Prediction Center has raised the chance for severe storms near and east of this line from Slight to Enhanced. A few of these storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Lesser chances for storms exist to the southwest, toward San Antonio, however if storms do form in this area they will also be capable of becoming strong to severe.
Also, those with outdoor Halloween activities late Thursday afternoon through the evening should remain weather aware not only for severe storms but the threat for cloud to ground lightning. If you are close enough to hear thunder you are at risk from being struck by lightning.
The system should move quick enough to preclude significant flooding. However a few pockets of heavier rainfall of 1-3" are possible across Lee, Bastrop, and Fayette counties could occur, resulting in spotty, minor flooding.
Forecast confidence remains low to moderate on timing and location. Stay tuned over the coming day as details become refined on timing, location, and threats/impacts.